The fixed numbers — WA's current fiscal position
WA pays to Canberra
A$112B
FY2024 estimate
WA receives back
A$73B
FY2024 estimate
Net fiscal drain
A$39B
Per year — retained if independent
WA resource sector value
~A$130B
Annual export value (est.)
Current WA govt spending
~A$71B
State budget baseline
Adjust the model
Resource royalty rate
20%
Applied to WA's ~A$130B annual resource sector value
Government efficiency saving
20%
Reduction in current A$71B state spending through leaner independent governance
Royalty revenue
A$26B
From resource sector at 20% rate
Retained from Canberra
A$39B
Fixed — net fiscal transfer stops
Total revenue
A$65B
Royalty + retained transfer (+ GST, land)
Projected spending
A$57B
After efficiency saving applied
Budget outcome
+A$8B
Surplus at these settings
Resource royalty revenue
Retained fiscal transfer (A$39B fixed)
Projected government spending
Full revenue and spending breakdown
Item
Source
Amount (A$B)
Resource royalty revenue
Modelled — adjustable above
+26.0
Retained Commonwealth fiscal transfer
WA Treasury FY2024
+39.0
GST revenue (retained at WA's share)
Commonwealth Grants Commission 2024
+8.5
State land tax, stamp duty, other state levies
WA Budget FY2024
+7.2
Total estimated revenue
+80.7
Spending item
Basis
Amount (A$B)
Baseline WA government spending
WA Budget FY2024
−71.0
Efficiency savings (leaner govt)
Modelled — adjustable above
+14.2
New defence force (est.)
Manifesto Chapter 8 estimate
−4.0
New currency and reserve authority (est.)
Manifesto Chapter 6 estimate
−1.5
Net projected spending
−62.3
Projected budget balance
+18.4
Model assumptions and limitations
- Resource sector value estimated at ~A$130B annual based on WA iron ore, LNG, gold, and agricultural export values (FY2024). Commodity price volatility is not modelled.
- The A$39B retained fiscal transfer assumes WA no longer remits Commonwealth taxes — a simplified assumption; actual negotiated arrangements would differ.
- Efficiency savings are assumed to be achievable through bureaucratic restructuring over a transition period of 5–10 years, not immediately.
- GST retained at WA's current 8.2% share of national pool (~A$8.5B). Under independence, WA would likely establish its own consumption tax or equivalent.
- Income tax is assumed abolished under the manifesto's proposal — workers keep all earnings. This is modelled as a revenue item removed and offset by royalty revenue.
- New defence and reserve authority costs are illustrative estimates from the manifesto. Actual transition costs could be significantly higher.
- This model is for illustrative and educational purposes only. It is not financial or policy advice.